Trading Case September 14, 2026 – A Good Story!
Trading Case from Vikingen and Aktieutbildning.nu, Mikael Hellberg
NOTE: This case study is provided primarily for educational purposes!
Trading purchase: Storytel B, approx. 113.7 SEK
Target: 200 SEK
Stop-loss: 89 SEK
Why?
Technical analysis
(See also the chart below from Vikingen)
A strong upward trend seems to have started. Long-term uptrend breakout.
A major bottoming pattern since March 2022, which is now breaking out upward.
We are moving from consolidation and low volatility to hopefully rising prices and higher volatility.
Vikingen’s BEST, Kursbands model (weekly and monthly), and other models give the “green” light and buy signals.
The relative chart is breaking out upward in a similar way, which is very positive; that is, the company is accelerating upward relative to the OMX in a formation similar to that of the absolute chart, meaning that large investors now appear to be driving the price higher.
The OMXS30 Stockholm Stock Exchange is also on a strong upward trend for Storytel b.
Fundamental analysis
Strengths (Strengths)
Storytel offers over 1.8 million titles in 55 languages to nearly 2.7 million subscribers under the Storytel, Mofibo, and Audiobooks.com brands.
Extremely strong profitability trend: Storytel has shifted from focusing solely on growth to building a highly profitable business. In its Q2 report for 2026, the company reported an adjusted EBITDA margin approaching 20% and a sharp increase in operating profit.
Loyal customer base and stable revenue (ARPU): The company has succeeded in increasing the number of subscribers without having to lower average revenue per user (ARPU). This proves that customers see great value in the service and are willing to pay for it, rather than the growth being “bought” through discounts.
Strong financial position: Storytel now has a very stable balance sheet. In mid-2026, net debt was down to an extremely low level of 14 million kronor. This makes the company independent of expensive loans and highly resilient.
Unique, proprietary content: Through its publishing operations (such as Norstedts) and its investment in Storytel Original, the company owns its own rights. This provides unique access to strong local authors and exclusive premium content that competitors cannot access.
Opportunities (Opportunities)
Room for aggressive acquisitions: Thanks to its strong cash flow and lack of debt, Storytel is in an excellent position to acquire interesting competitors, publishers, or tech platforms to accelerate its expansion into new markets.
Accelerated growth and new customer acquisition: With a strong marketing plan, the company expects an increased growth rate toward the end of 2026. It has identified a model in which international growth no longer automatically results in significant losses.
AI and New Technology: The entire audiobook industry is on the verge of striking gold with artificial intelligence. AI-powered narration, automated translations, and hyper-personalized recommendations enable Storytel to quickly and inexpensively introduce thousands of titles in entirely new languages.
More flexible subscription options: By fine-tuning family plans, student discounts, or limited-time “basic” packages, they can reach entirely new target audiences who previously found premium subscriptions too expensive.
Weaknesses (Weaknesses)
High initial costs: Producing high-quality, locally produced original content requires significant upfront investments before revenue from listens starts coming in.
Profitability in new markets: Growth outside core markets (primarily the Nordic region) requires extensive marketing campaigns, which can put pressure on margins in the short term before organic growth takes hold.
Hot (Threats)
The Entry of Tech Giants: Spotify’s aggressive push into audiobooks is the most high-profile challenger, followed by Amazon’s Audible. So far, however, the market has been more concerned about this than is actually evident in Storytel’s subscriber growth—its strong local focus has served as a moat.
Consumer Wallets: Storytel is essentially a “nice-to-have” subscription. If the economy takes a serious downturn, there’s always a risk that households will cut back on their subscriptions to save money.
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Yours sincerely
