Corporate bonds now yield only 0.12% above the Fed Funds rate.

0.12%, the excess return on corporate bonds is now only 0.12% above the Fed Funds rate. This is the lowest level since 2007, before the global financial crisis.

Each time credit spreads were at historically suppressed levels, a hard landing scenario followed. Maybe this time is indeed different, but I would rather base my perspective on many indicators that point to an impending severe recession. The profound issue of yield curve inversions is another example. Recently, over 90 percent of the fiscal curve was inverted, a measure that has accurately predicted every major economic downturn in the last 50 years.

In addition, the Fed’s policy stance should also be considered.

As we have learned repeatedly throughout history, monetary policy tightening works with a lag and we have not yet seen a significant credit crunch that could lead to further economic problems.

Even the apparent strength of the labor market should be taken with some caution.

Historically low unemployment rates have served as one of the most reliable counter-indications in history.

Either these macro indicators are on the verge of being proven wrong, or the overall stock valuations are completely out of line.

About the Viking

With Viking’s signals, you have a good chance of finding the winners and selling in time. There are many securities. With Viking’s autopilots or tables, you can sort out the most interesting ETFs, stocks, options, warrants, funds, and so on.

Click here to see what Vikingen offers: Detailed comparison – Stock market program for those who want to become even richer (vikingen.se)