In this Weeks Analysis, one of the world’s most important indexes!

2025-10-08 Catrin Abrahamsson Uncategorized, Vikingen, Updates

Som framhållits av Sentiment Trader är marknadsbredden för Nasdaq 100 verkligen ett växande problem. Det vi ser just nu är inget normalt beteende för Nasdaq. Nasdaq 100 fortsätter att notera rekordhögt efter rekordhögt.

This week, Aksjeanalyser.com takes a closer look at the Nasdaq 100 index!

There is every reason to be vigilant and keep a close eye on the developments. A major downward correction of 10-30% may be close.

Wall street sign with New York Stock Exchange background

Briefly about the Nasdaq 100 index in the US

The Nasdaq-100 (NDX ) is a stock market index made up of equity securities issued by 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. It is a modified capitalization-weighted index. The stocks’ weights in the index are based on their market capitalizations, with certain rules capping the influence of the largest components. It is limited to companies from a single exchange, and it does not have any financial companies. The financial companies are in a separate index, the Nasdaq Financial-100.

The Nasdaq-100 was launched on January 31, 1985, by Nasdaq. It created two indices: the Nasdaq-100, which consists of industrial, technology, retail, telecommunication, biotechnology, health care, transportation, media and service companies, and the Nasdaq Financial-100, which consists of banking companies, insurance firms, brokerage firms, and mortgage loan companies.

Foreign companies were first admitted to the Nasdaq-100 in January 1998, but had higher standards to meet before they could be added. Those standards were relaxed in 2002, while standards for domestic firms were raised, ensuring that all companies met the same standards.

Technical Analysis of the Nasdaq 100 index in the US

The Nasdaq 100 index is now close to the top of a rising trend in the weekly chart, and at the same time various momentum indicators (weekly chart) show a strongly overbought situation for the Nasdaq 100 index.

This indicates that a downward correction may be imminent for the Nasdaq 100 index.

200-day moving average vs. 200-week moving average

‘Everyone’ uses 200-day moving averages, but you should definitely also use 200-week moving averages in your technical analysis to capture and study the larger movements in indices and shares.

If we look at the historical picture for the Nasdaq 100 index (and this of course also applies to other indices and shares), from time to time there are major corrections towards (and sometimes below) the 200-week moving average.

Nasdaq 100, week chart and with 50 and 200-week moving average

The Nasdaq 100 index is currently around 50% higher than the 200-week moving average.
Looking at the last four major downward corrections for the Nasdaq 100 index, the Nasdaq 100 was approximately 40% above the 200-week moving average in October 2018, when a major downward correction occurred for the Nasdaq 100 index.
In February 2020, the Nasdaq 100 index was approximately 46 percent above the 200-week moving average, and then a major downward correction came for the Nasdaq 100 index.
In December 2021, the Nasdaq 100 index was 67% above the 200-week moving average, and then a major downward correction came for the Nasdaq 100 index.
In December 2024, the Nasdaq 100 index was approximately 41 percent above the 200-week moving average, and then a major downward correction came for the Nasdaq 100 index.
Today in October 2025, the Nasdaq 100 index is approximately 50% above the 200-week moving average, and is at the same time up against the upper trend line in the rising trend. At the same time as various (weekly chart) momentum indicators show an overbought situation for the Nasdaq 100 index.

Based on the overall technical picture that the Nasdaq 100 index now shows, and also based on when historical major corrections have occurred in relation to how high above the 200-week moving average Nasdaq 100 has been when major corrections have occurred in the past.

Yes, it seems quite obvious to Aksjeanalyser.com that we are now at a level where the Nasdaq 100, and the overall technical picture, indicates that one should pay very close attention and be prepared that a major correction down in the direction of the 200-week moving average (which today is around 16,700 points) may take place.

A correction down to the 200-week moving average would mean a correction of around 30-35 percent for the Nasdaq 100 from the current level where it is up to 25,000 points.

Aksjeanalyser.com does not intend to drive any kind of scare propaganda here, but still the situation is very interesting and everyone must make their own evaluation and opinion, and closely follow the market and developments going forward.

200-day moving average and Nasdaq 100 now

If we then go to the usual 200-day moving average, we see that there, too, the Nasdaq 100 index is now significantly above this and is now around 15% above the 200-day moving average.

Historically, we see that there are always corrections towards the 200-day moving average, and if we look at the previous three times such major corrections towards the 200-day moving average have occurred for the Nasdaq 100 index, they are as follows:

In July 2023, the Nasdaq 100 index was 28% above the 200-day moving average when there was a major correction down towards the 200-day moving average.
In July 2024, the Nasdaq 100 index was 21% above the 200-day moving average when there was a major correction down towards the 200-day moving average.
In November 2024, the Nasdaq 100 index was 10% above the 200-day moving average when there was a major correction down towards the 200-day moving average.
Today in October 2025, the Nasdaq 100 index is now 15% above its 200-day moving average.

This indicates that a major correction towards the 200-day, and perhaps also towards the 200-week moving average, may be imminent.

In any case, it’s well worth taking note of these technical levels, according to Aksjeanalyser.com, and keeping a close eye on future developments.

The short-term picture and key technical levels to watch now for the Nasdaq 100 index!

Looking at the very short-term picture now for the Nasdaq 100 and what levels are well worth watching very closely, the first important technical support level is around 24,000 points for the Nasdaq 100 index, and where there is also support around the 50-day moving average.

A break down below the support level around 24,000 points and below the 50-day moving average would be the first serious technical sell signal for the Nasdaq 100 index.

This would indicate a further decline towards the 22,000 level and towards the 200-day moving average (which is currently around 21,700 points).

If the 200-day moving average is also broken, a further decline towards the 200-week moving average for the Nasdaq 100 will be signaled, which is currently around 16,700 points.

It is therefore quite possible that we are now very close to a short- to medium-term peak for the Nasdaq 100, and a correction of 10-30 percent may be imminent.

We all know that no stock exchange, index or share grows forever into the sky, and corrections down to both 200-day and 200-week moving averages sometimes occur for both stock exchange indices and shares.

That’s how it’s always been, and that’s how it’s 100% guaranteed to be forever and for all time to come.

So it’s well worth keeping a close eye, as always, on both stock market indices and shares and trying to time investments and purchases and sales as best you can.

The first important level to watch now for the Nasdaq 100 index is the 24,000 level and the 50-day moving average, which is around 23,800. A break below this level will trigger a significant technical sell signal for the Nasdaq 100 index.