The Stocktip from Vikingen and Aktieutbildning.nu

Opportunities in a cyclical growth company?

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Is now a good time to invest in Hexatronic?
Read what Aktieutbildning.nu and others think in the analysis below.

Akieutbildning.nu and Mikael Hellberg (who is behind this post) have extensive experience in trading and fund management. The following post should be seen mostly as an educational case and not as an absolute recommendation you should slavishly follow. Read on and form your own opinion before investing in anything. You are welcome to participate in Börssnack which Mikael offers every Wednesday at 7-8 pm online. Read more about this further down.

Technical analysis of Hexatronic 34 kr (HTRO)

(see also weekly, monthly, and relative charts below, all diagrams from Vikingen Financial Software

• • Strong upward trend seems to have started. Long-term trend breaks upward.
  • Large round-bottomed formation, since December 2022, now breaking upwards.
  • We are moving from consolidation and low volatility to hopefully rising prices and higher volatility.
  • Vikingen’s BEST-Model and Price band model (weekly and monthly), and others. Models give a “green” light and a buy signal.
  • The relative graph is breaking upwards in a similar way, which is very positive. The company is accelerating upwards relative to the OMX in a similar formation to the absolute graph. Large investors are probably driving the price upwards.

Fundamental analysis

Hexatronic is an interesting company that has gone from being a “stock market rocket” to facing a tougher reality of high interest rates and reduced investments in fiber deployment. As part of your stock education, Hexatronic is a perfect example of a cyclical growth company. Below the monthly chart is a SWOT analysis for Hexatronic based on current market conditions.

Strengths (Strengths)

Vertical integration: Hexatronic controls the entire chain – from manufacturing fiber cable and pipes to training and field support. This provides better margins and control over the supply chain.

Global presence: they have managed to establish a strong presence in key emerging markets such as the US, the UK and Germany, reducing dependence on the small Swedish home market.

System sales: they sell not only components but complete system solutions (Viper system), making it more difficult for customers to switch to a competitor (high switching costs).

Weaknesses (Weaknesses)

Capital intensive: Fiber and pipe manufacturing requires large factories and a lot of working capital.

Historically high debt: The company has grown rapidly through acquisitions, which during periods of high interest rates puts pressure on cash flow and limits room for maneuver.

Vulnerability to inventory cycles: We saw in 2023/2024 how quickly demand can fall when customers (telcos) suddenly start to deplete their stocks instead of placing new orders.

Opportunities (Opportunities)

US BEAD: The massive US government program to expand rural broadband is a huge opportunity that is expected to take effect in 2025-2026.

Lagging behind in Europe: Countries such as Germany and the UK are far behind Sweden in fiber deployment. There are many years of work left to do.

5G and Data Centers: The rollout of 5G networks and large data centers requires huge amounts of fiber to handle the data traffic, opening new niches beyond traditional FTTH (Fiber-to-the-home).

Hot (Threats)

Interest rates: Fiber deployment is expensive and often financed with loans. If interest rates remain high, operators will postpone their investment decisions.

Price pressure from China: Large Chinese players can dump prices on standard cable to gain market share, squeezing Hexatronic’s margins.

Alternative technologies: Although fiber is superior, technologies such as satellite (Starlink) or 5G fixed wireless may become “good enough” alternatives in rural areas, reducing the overall market for buried fiber.

The analyst perspective

Many analysts see Hexatronic as an “all or nothing” stock. When the market turns up, it does so very quickly thanks to its operating leverage (profits increase much more than sales). But uncertainty about when the big US projects (BEAD) will actually start in earnest has made many investors hesitant. This is not a defensive stock, but a play on global digital infrastructure.

Gemini
Over the past six months (September 2025 – March 2026), the mood around Hexatronic has shifted from deep pessimism to a cautious but clear belief in recovery. After the sharp falls in 2024 and early 2025, many analysts now see that the bottom has been reached. Below are the main target prices and latest analysis from the last six months

1. Analysts’ target prices

Most major research houses have adjusted their expectations upwards in early 2026 as Hexatronic’s cost-cutting program has started to take effect.

2. Views and analysis of the business press

Dagens Industri / EFN (Feb 2026): Analyst Peter Hedlund recently gave a buy recommendation. He believes that the new management and the strong cost-cutting measures will be visible in profits already in the second quarter of 2026. The market expects organic growth to finally turn upwards.

Affärsvärlden (Afv): Has been more cautious (“Wait”) during the fall of 2025 due to the company’s debt and weak cash flow in Fiber Solutions. However, they have noted that the valuation (around P/E 10-12 on future earnings) is starting to look attractive if the market stabilizes.

Redeye has highlighted the Data Center segment as the big “wild card”. It is growing by almost 30% organically and is now becoming such a large part of Hexatronic that it can compensate for the sluggish fiber market.

3. Three key triggers according to analysts

The analysts point to three important factors that will determine whether the target prices are reached:

• • • • BEAD program in the US: The giant government grant for broadband is expected to start rolling out orders in earnest in 2026. Hexatronic is well positioned there with its local factories.
      • Interest rate cuts: As fiber deployment is interest rate sensitive (capital intensive for customers), lower interest rates are seen as a direct buy signal for the stock.
      • The turnaround in Fiber Solutions: Margins in the core business (fiber) need to stabilize around 10% for confidence to fully return.In summary: The average target price is currently around SEK 32-35, which is close to today’s price (around SEK 34). However, those who are more optimistic (such as Kepler and Pareto) see a potential up to SEK 45-47 if the recovery in the US is as strong as management hopes.
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